Navigating freight market uncertainty: What shippers should be thinking about this spring

RFQ season is here, we’re two weeks into a new presidential administration, and shippers and manufacturers, like you, are elbows deep in the decisions that will impact your 2025 profitability. Yet, you’re making big bets amidst a future that still feels awfully uncertain.

What trends will shape your spring and summer? And how can you give your organization the best possible chance at success?

Here’s what I see.

Trump tariffs uncertainty

As you no doubt already know, the Trump administration has implemented an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports and enacted and temporarily paused 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

Are these tariffs setting up the U.S. for a recession? Opening up negotiations? Opinions vary wildly. What we do know is that this unprecedented situation is creating a lot of uncertainty in the market. Supply chains are already being disrupted, and Canadian companies are taking American beer, wine, and spirits off their shelves.

During the 30-day pause on Canadian and Mexican tariffs, you can expect to see freight rates rise as shippers hustle to bring loads across the borders ahead of the deadline. We’ve already seen rates spike on our load board.

And what happens if these tariffs are implemented for any length of time? Get ready for whiplash as they suppress demand for U.S. transportation providers and, ultimately, push capacity out of the market.

Amid so much market uncertainty, it will be critical to find agile partners operating sustainable business models. They’ll be best placed to reliably service your transportation and logistics needs through difficult disruptions.

Spike in U.S. – Mexico cross-border freight movement

It’s early days in the transition to the new Trump administration. Still, the prospect of a fresh wave of disruption puts pressure on manufacturers to move production to new countries, perhaps nearshore, and diversify.

While the administration’s long-term strategy appears to be primarily focused on trade balances and preferential trade conditions, boosting U.S. manufacturing has also been discussed. But that doesn’t happen with the flip of a switch; it takes a sizable investment of time and resources to adapt supply chains. Manufacturers may be hesitant to make those commitments in response to a four-year term when they can source a $1 U.S. part for 75 cents south of the border—especially amid so much uncertainty.

Per Michigan State University professor of supply chain management, Jason Miller, “Looking at our reliance on imports in many sectors, there is zero-point-zero chance that we can produce all these goods domestically—it would take at least 5 years (and more likely a decade) to ramp up production. Also, who is going to open a contract manufacturing sector to assemble generic consumer electronic devices like kids’ tablets in the USA when an elimination of tariffs would make such investments immediately uneconomic?”

That means we very well may see an increase in traffic flowing across the U.S.-Mexico border as the Trump administration puts additional pressure on Chinese imports.

Considering leveraging Mexican suppliers or operating manufacturing plants in Mexico?

To get ahead of that potential outcome, I’d suggest you identify cross-border partners who offer high service levels and extensive experience—and develop those business-critical relationships now. They’ll be in high demand, and you’ll want solid partnerships in place before capacity tightens. They may charge slightly higher rates for their services, but their experience will pay big dividends by helping you avoid border crossing delays, unexpected costs, and frustrated customers.

This advice counts double for SMBs. Without the enterprise-level resources to more easily adapt supply chains and absorb costs, you’ll be disproportionately impacted. Tapping cross-border experts who can deliver educated guidance will be mission-critical.

Rising freight rates

The long-promised rebalancing of the freight market may be just around the corner. Some market analysts are reporting a 3% increase in truckload contract rates and a 5.5% to 6% increase in spot rates this year, and we could see those rates begin to climb as early as Q2.

That means shippers locking in favorable contract rates as part of their annual bid process could see lower-than-expected capacity utilization by summer.

My recommendation: Plan for it. Assume you’ll be dipping into the spot market, and begin the work now to develop strong partnerships with the brokers and carriers who play there. As you do, pay careful attention to those invested in mutual sustainable growth. When the pendulum swings, they’ll treat you fairly.

You might also consider moving to a quarterly RFQ process for your most volatile lanes to help boost utilization.

One caveat: As we saw in 2019, new tariffs may threaten production levels—just to balance the picture here.

AI technology disruption

AI is having its day, and we expect to see these cutting-edge tools accelerate quoting, partner procurement, and carrier vetting for the brokers who invest. That’s good news for you.

But a word of caution: A tool is only as good as the people it empowers.

While some brokerages use AI to minimize the mundane, freeing up teams to innovate, creatively solve project challenges, and deliver customer value—others use it to bring down labor costs, whether that means smaller teams, more junior staff, or both.

While humans can be very resilient when efficiency overtakes resiliency, you cannot expect the same thing here.

And when brokerages shed experienced and resilient humans, service degradation follows. That means disruptions and delays, communication gaps, cargo claims, and unhappy customers for you.

So, vet your brokerages carefully. We’re on the cusp of a tech-driven disruption, and those failing to embrace AI to empower their veteran teams will fall by the wayside.

I get it: Forecasting amidst so much uncertainty can create a lot of heartburn. I’ve been there, done that. But getting ahead of the trends and finding your ride-or-die partners can set you up for success when the market shifts.